Thursday, November 1, 2007

Forex Trading Systems - 95% Lose As Their Curve Fitted Here's How To Spot Them

Forex trading systems are hot, you will see them everywhere - all promising you big gains. The vast majority fail to deliver and the reason is curve fitting. If you dont know what it is read on.


Curve fitting is using past data and bends the rules of the system, to fit the data and make it profitable.

Because the rules of the system have been bent on a snapshot of past data (keep in mind markets never repeat themselves exactly) it is curve fitted and chances are it will lose in real time trading.

This is really like shooting at a barn door with a gun and then drawing a bulls-eye around the shots AFTERWARDS, making them all bulls-eyes!

Hypothetical Illusions

The fact is most forex trading systems dont have a real time track record, they only have one done in hindsight.

Now making money in hindsight is easy, especially if you curve fit it, but of course trading without knowing the closing prices is much more difficult!

Most forex system vendors know there systems dont work and rely on curve fitting and hyped advertising copy to sell their systems then the forex trader wipes himself out and wonders why!

You take a loss and the vendor makes a guaranteed return selling you a junk system they dont even trade themselves!

So How Do You Spot Curve Fitting?

Well when you see a hypothetical track record, be on your guard straight away and look for the following:

1. Lots of indicators and lots of different rules (often with different rules and parameters per currency)

2. Look for a track record with extraordinary growth and absence of drawdown.

A system that exhibits the above will be curve fitted.

Dont Fall For The Hype

Really you shouldnt bother trading forex trading systems which use hypothetical track records but if you want to examine the logic, rules and parameters closely.

Many vendors also keep their rules and parameters secret and dont even tell you what they are - dont even consider these black box systems. most of the time they just make the track records up.

For some reason forex traders take hypothetical records seriously, but there not really worth anything unless you can study them and see their not curve fitted and believe me most of them are!

Play Safe

Vendors who have to use hyped advertising copy and a hypothetical track record generally dont have a product worth considering ONLY deal with vendors of forex trading systems who can back their claims up with a real audited track record over 2 years or more.

After all If they dont have the guts to trade their own system and prove it's worth why should you?

Would you take driving lessons from someone who couldn't prove they could drive? Exactly.

Next time you think of buying a forex trading system, check it out and the chances are its curve fitted and this makes you odds on to lose if you use it.

Play safe only use a system that has a real time track record.


On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader including features, downloads and some critical FREE Trader PDF's and more FREE Forex Education visit our website at

Stock Dividend Record - What is a "Dividend Record" Where Can I Find It?

For those stock investors who may not know this, the Standard Poor or popularly known as (S&P), is a leading provider of independent investment research, market ratings as well as stock market indicators.

Standard & Poors (S&P) Dividend Record provides comprehensive information on dividend payments and corporate actions of over 22,000 equity securities.

It is available through S&Ps Data Services for a fee. S&P is widely accepted as the world leader in independent investment research. The information focuses on cash and stock distributions and consequences these will have on taxes. Mergers and acquisitions affecting dividend payments, redemptions, outcomes of stockholder meetings are also detailed.

Dividend Record focuses on companies listed on American and major Canadian exchanges, as well as selected foreign stock issues.

The information is accessible through the Internet direct from S&P. Information from Dividend Record can be used to research individual companies, market sectors, market indices, or the market as a whole. Emerging trends can be studied from the data. Even though the information isnt free, reports about the latest Dividend Record are widely reported every time the quarterly versions are published.

Mergent also publishes its version called, appropriately, Mergents Dividend Record.

Another use of the term dividend record has to do the date a company actually makes announced dividend payments. This record date is important because shareholders on record on that date will be paid. For example, a company would announce that it will pay a dividend on April 1 to shareholders on record as of March 15.

Don't miss the exciting tips on stock market trading and insiders information of finding divided record when you visit, the premier online stock trading portal and resources.

Learn Forex Trading - Learn This Essential Fact First To Succeed

In this article we are going to look at one essential fact you need to succeed when trading currencies. If you understand it, you can will be taking your first step to learning forex trading correctly and achieving forex trading success the fact you must understand is:

The ratio of winners to losers hasnt changed in 50 years - 95% lose and 5% win So what you may say?

Well think about it:

The ratio of winners to losers has stayed the same and this is despite the increased power of computers in terms of data analysis and forex analysis programs, data analysis, better and more timely news sources and a huge amount of experts wanting to help you.

Doesnt this fact strike you as odd?

All these advantages! Yet the bulk of traders still find their currency trading strategies lose.

Well there is a simple reason why and its an essential part of your forex education:

Forex trading is relatively simple and is as much mindset, as it is a good currency trading system, so learn the points below and you will be able learn forex trading correctly and succeed:

1. Simple systems work best

There is a temptation to devise complicated forex trading systems - after all computers can help you do it easily, but the fact is this will help you lose.

A complicated system has more elements to break a simple system is best as it is more robust.

2. News is the enemy

Today there is a lot of news and its presented well - all those convincing arguments!

All great to hear or read but it will simply help you lose - news is discounted in seconds so it wont help you as the market looks to the future.

3. Volatility Has Increased

The volatility of currency trading has increased with faster communications.

This means you have sharper counter trend moves to deal with and the big challenge today is dealing with it this has actually made currency trading success harder!

4. The myth of the expert

In todays society we consult experts on everything, yet currency trading is one area an expert wont help you.

The fact is success comes from within no one is going to give it you.

Many traders buy worthless e-books for hundred dollars or so and believe the hype and these guys can help dream on.

They present great marketing copy and normally claim great success with no substantiation whatsoever and never have a real track record to back up their claims, just a worthless simulated profit in hindsight.

If you want to win, ignore them and find your own way.

Trading the truth

The market price is always right, only you can be wrong and it moves as and when it wants to.

To win you have to create a set of rules to lead you to currency trading success, have confidence in them and the discipline to execute your trading signals.

Most people cant take responsibility for their actions, lose and blame the markets or others for their losses but in reality its their fault.

Most people simply dont have the mindset to win and thats as true today as 50 years ago.

You just need to learn forex trading the right way and this article has given you something to think about and a valuable bit of forex education.

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Point and Figure Charts- Part One

You may have seen something on some stock sites that looks like what a football coach would have on his chalkboard; a mix of X's and O's. Maybe it's hugs and kisses for Valentine's Day. Or, perhaps, it's a new form of multi-level tic-tac-toe. The correct answer is "none of the above". It's a form of tracking stocks called a Point and Figure Chart.

Point & Figure (P and F) charts are made up of columns of X's and O's that display filtered price movements over time. Some of the benefits of using P&F charts instead of the more traditional bar or candlestick charts are:

Getting rid of the tiny, insignificant price variations that often make bar charts appear 'cluttered'

Removing the tricky distortions of time from the analysis process, to give a clearer picture of what's really going on with the stock

Make locating support/resistance levels much easier,and make trend line recognition a 'cake-walk'

Enable the user to concentrate on the important long-term price developments

The Point & Figure method of chart analysis has been utilized for many years. Before the wide-spread, almost universal use of computers, P & F charts were invaluable to stock trackers. In just a few minutes, using only graph paper, a pen or pencil, and the stock quotes from the newspaper, P&F chartists were able to update and analyze 25, 50, even 100 charts each day! In the late 1980's, computers came into universal use by stock trackers. Using computers made it much easier to create bar charts. As a result, P&F charts began to disappear. Recently, however, P & F charting is undergoing a "Renaissance", and is once again growing in popularity, as investors look for simpler and better ways to select stocks. Even in the world of the stock market, "less is more".

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Dottye is a Realtor, an Internet Marketer, and a published Author of three books, and several short stories and songs. For more information, please visit: