Friday, October 12, 2007

The One Predictable Thing About Technology

... Is that it's unpredictable.

Making predictions about anything is a tricky business. It's often fraught with problems and compounded by two factors: too many variables and too many people.

Making predictions in the world of technology is about as rough as it gets. You see a trend, a fad, or a new craze, jump on it, extrapolate, and then go and get it all totally wrong.

As an example, at the turn of the 20th century, it was predicted that passenger air balloon travel pioneered by the likes of Count Ferdinand von Zeppelin would be commoditized and become the pre-eminent means of mass transit. In fact, it would be so popular, by the 1980s, people would have their own personal air balloon as their primary method of conveyance.

Obviously, this gaze into the future didn't take into account the airplane, which put an end to that pearl of foresight.

The main problem with looking forward is that people do it in such painfully straight lines, as the previous example demonstrates. The telephone is another useful example; who could have predicted mobile phones at the time Alexander Graham Bell was fussing around with the technological equivalent of paper cups and wet string?

No one could have. Furthermore, how could anyone have predicted that these mobile telephones would one day have cameras built in? Or that you could send written messages on them? You only have to go back 10 years, and such ideas would be derided as foolish drivel.

The future is a curly thing, and in the wonderful world of information technology, the driving force behind much of the confusion is convergence.

Now there's a buzzword if I ever heard one. And this becomes the next big problem with predicting future trends in technology: let's get two really cool gizmos and merge them; people will love it!

Err, no! What drives desire is anyone's guess. What drives need is utility: two very different parts of the brain are being exercised, here, one more than the other!

If something doesn't fulfill a practical purpose, then it's neither use nor ornament.

This future-predicting thing is even harder these days, but in a way, even the most outlandish theory could have its day. Things are changing so quickly that new technologies are emerging literally overnight. And given that people's needs are also changing, evolving, and emerging, who knows?

Going back even further, desire, need call it what you will has a common source. The very engine of change is people, society, lifestyle, and a requirement to manage, re-route and/or if need be, delegate all of this data and information.

The Apple Newton was way ahead of its time. A bunch of clever guys 'n' gals sat in a room and made a remarkable prediction about how people would "consume" data and information, and they were right on the money the only problem being that they were over 10 years early!

Now, people are on the move. People work on the move, hold down long-distance relationships, work with colleagues across time zones, and manage bank accounts in a cafe while drinking a cup of chai.

The only certainty is the same one that has been pontificated upon since time immemorial: things change. Things often come together in intriguing, mysterious, and eminently useful ways.

So here's my prediction: things will never be small enough, big enough, fast enough, cool enough, or cheap enough! Am I wrong?

Wayne Smallman is the man behind Octane Interactive, a web design, web applications development and internet marketing agency based in Yorkshire, England that's been around since 1999.

8 Stunningly Beautiful Exotic Woods

The sheer beauty and versatility of exotic woods adds enormous value to the wood-crafting industry. Exotic woods come from all corners of the globe and each one has its own unique and prized quality.

African Blackwood

The African Blackwood tree has a lustrous wood that comes in a range of dense red to black shades. This wood is very versatile and can be used for making Egyptian furniture as well as a range of woodwind instruments including clarinets.

East Indian Rosewood

The wonderfully exotic East Indian Rosewood has a magnificent striped appearance and contains a few resin properties. This wood is easy to work with and is popularly used for crafts that involve a lot of wood turning.

Lacewood

Getting its name from its distinctive lace-like appearance, Lacewood is softer than many of the exotic woods and is widely used in veneers and in projects that require turning.

African Mahogany

There are several splendid African Mahogany species available including the Khaya Mahogany, which could range in color from light pink to reddish brown. Its rich tonal qualities make it great for use in making guitars.

Leopardwood

A rare, exotic Brazilian hardwood, the grain pattern of the Leopardwood is distinctive and resembles a leopards skin. This wood is popularly used for smaller sized decorative items including jewelry boxes.

Ebony

Ebony is easy to recognize by its distinctive black color. This dense wood is a mainstay in several musical instruments, exquisite chess sets, pistol grips and ornamental art.

Desert Ironwood

One of the densest of all exotic woods, Desert Ironwood is grown exclusively in the Sonoran desert area of the US and Mexico. This wood is not very easy to work with but its beautiful sheen when finished is much sought after in the construction of knife handles, jewelry and art pieces.

Bocote

Though the Bocote wood is very hard and heavy, it is quite easily worked on. This exotic wood is highly resistant to decay and marring and is often used in custom knife handles, smoking pipes, pool cues as well as hi-end cabinetry and flooring.

Find exotic woods and wood blank stock at our site.

12 Basic Stock Investing Rules Every Successful Investor Should Follow

There are many important things you need to know to trade and invest successfully in the stock market or any other market. 12 of the most important things that I can share with you based on many years of trading experience are enumerated below.

1. Buy low-sell high. As simple as this concept appears to be, the vast majority of investors do the exact opposite. Your ability to consistently buy low and sell high, will determine the success, or failure, of your investments. Your rate of return is determined 100% by when you enter the stock market.

2. The stock market is always right and price is the only reality in trading. If you want to make money in any market, you need to mirror what the market is doing. If the market is going down and you are long, the market is right and you are wrong. If the stock market is going up and you are short, the market is right and you are wrong.

Other things being equal, the longer you stay right with the stock market, the more money you will make. The longer you stay wrong with the stock market, the more money you will lose.

3. Every market or stock that goes up will go down and most markets or stocks that have gone down, will go up. The more extreme the move up or down, the more extreme the movement in the opposite direction once the trend changes. This is also known as "the trend always changes rule."

4. If you are looking for "reasons" that stocks or markets make large directional moves, you will probably never know for certain. Since we are dealing with perception of markets-not necessarily reality, you are wasting your time looking for the many reasons markets move.

A huge mistake most investors make is assuming that stock markets are rational or that they are capable of ascertaining why markets do anything. To make a profit trading, it is only necessary to know that markets are moving - not why they are moving. Stock market winners only care about direction and duration, while market losers are obsessed with the whys.

5. Stock markets generally move in advance of news or supportive fundamentals - sometimes months in advance. If you wait to invest until it is totally clear to you why a stock or a market is moving, you have to assume that others have done the same thing and you may be too late.

You need to get positioned before the largest directional trend move takes place. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bull market will be positive more often than not. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bear market will be negative more often than not.

6. The trend is your friend. Since the trend is the basis of all profit, we need long term trends to make sizeable money. The key is to know when to get aboard a trend and stick with it for a long period of time to maximize profits. Contrary to the short term perspective of most investors today, all the big money is made by catching large market moves - not by day trading or short term stock investing.

7. You must let your profits run and cut your losses quickly if you are to have any chance of being successful. Trading discipline is not a sufficient condition to make money in the markets, but it is a necessary condition. If you do not practice highly disciplined trading, you will not make money over the long term. This is a stock trading system in itself.

8. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is fallacious and is actually a derivative of the perfect competition model of capitalism. The Efficient Market Hypothesis at root shares many of the same false premises as the perfect competition paradigm as described by a well known economist.

The perfect competition model is not based on anything that exists on this earth. Consistently profitable professional traders simply have better information - and they act on it. Most non-professionals trade strictly on emotion, and lose much more money than they earn.

The combination of superior information for some investors and the usual panic as losses mount caused by buying high and selling low for others, creates inefficient markets.

9. Traditional technical and fundamental analysis alone may not enable you to consistently make money in the markets. Successful market timing is possible but not with the tools of analysis that most people employ.

If you eliminate optimization, data mining, subjectivism, and other such statistical tricks and data manipulation, most trading ideas are losers.

10. Never trust the advice and/or ideas of trading software vendors, stock trading system sellers, market commentators, financial analysts, brokers, newsletter publishers, trading authors, etc., unless they trade their own money and have traded successfully for years.

Note those that have traded successfully over very long periods of time are very few in number. Keep in mind that Wall Street and other financial firms make money by selling you something - not instilling wisdom in you. You should make your own trading decisions based on a rational analysis of all the facts.

11. The worst thing an investor can do is take a large loss on their position or portfolio. Market timing can help avert this much too common experience.

You can avoid making that huge mistake by avoiding buying things when they are high. It should be obvious that you should only buy when stocks are low and only sell when stocks are high.

Since your starting point is critical in determining your total return, if you buy low, your long term investment results are irrefutably better than someone that bought high.

12. The most successful investing methods should take most individuals no more than four or five hours per week and, for the majority of us, only one or two hours per week with little to no stress involved.

C.C. Collins is a Financial Planning Advisor and Author of Scientific Wealth Strategies at http://www.wealthscientist.com Find more information at http://www.stockinfo4u.com

A Sneaky Way to Steal Someone Else's Forex Trading System

Anyone who is serious about trading needs to have a Forex Trading System that is tailored to them, but there is no reason to start constructing your Forex trading system from scratch.

Why try and reinvent the wheel when you can benefit from other traders years of experience and borrow your trading systems ideas and concepts?

Its easy to do, and there are some pretty good Forex trading systems out there for you to work with. Some of them are free and some are very expensive, but the price tags dont always reflect the actual value of the Forex trading systems. But, many of these systems wont work for you, and I am not talking about out-right dishonesty here, which can be a big problem when trading. What I am talking about is your ability to effectively trade with the system that you may be considering using or buying.

You need to use a system that matches your life style and personality. If you have a day job (not trading), a Forex Trading System that requires you to stare at a screen all day wouldnt be appropriate. You would be distracted at work and miss the opportunities to make money, or even worse, you will not close a trade effectively and could lose money.

Some Forex trading systems have a potential to lose 20, 30 or 40% of your money before they are profitable. Can you handle a system that can drop your trading capital to half before making money? Or, are you prepared to have a string of 8 to 10 loses in a row before you have a winning trade? Some of the best traders in the world lose money on more than 50% of their trades. These are all important points to consider when you are creating your Forex Trading System. Choose aspects of the different systems that are out there that fit your trading style best, and then build your Forex trading system.

An excellent trading method, which was made famous by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt and is sometimes referred to as Turtle Trading, is one of the best Forex trading systems that I know of. They get returns in excess of 20 to 100% per year using this system. But, could most traders trade their system? Not a chance! Dennis and Eckhardt also loose on over 60% of their trades.

Once you know what sort of Forex Trading System will work best for you, look at the components that make it work. Face it; if you are a new, or even a fairly serious, trader how likely are you to come up with a totally new concept? There are some very smart and wealthy traders out there. Why not use their ideas. Consider Dennis and Eckhardts turtle trading, their system is based on a breakout method. I know most traders could not trade using their exact method, but they could take parts of it, such as the breakouts, to confirm a trend.

You can also use other Forex trading systems to give you an outline of what parts a system has to have for it to make money. All great Forex trading systems have these three basics:

1. Entry Rules,
2. Money Management Rules and
3. Exit Rules.

Study and learn from the Forex trading systems out there, borrow their concepts, and steal their ideas. It will put you on the track to the system that will make you a successful trader.


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Kuala Lumpur Stock Market Outlook - Forecast for the Day - 27 June 2007!

Profit-taking depressed local market. But Dow should stage rebound on Tuesday night.

Technically speaking:

1. As at Tuesdays close at 1366.99 the KLCI was lower by 10.14 points or 0.74%. Losers led gainers 648 to 286.

2. The lower close is a dampener especially after a breakout into new highs last Friday.

3. But as chartists one should expect the unexpected. In other words, if the KLCI should fall further to and violate its lower Bollinger band, one should consider exiting the market at 1348 or lower.

4. But until then, it is possible for the KLCI to stage a rebound.

5. Until the present circumstance, we would be cautious and not buy further.

6. We would wait-and-see and wait for a rebound before adding more positions.

7. Stocks-to-watch for today will, understandably be low. They are: LMCEMT and YTLCMT.

8. We were right about TRANMILE going down to hit the floor. We hope you have exited this stock as based on technical analysis it can make lower lows.

9. We observed that the local stock market moves in tandem with the strength of the ringgit. For the market to rally we would want to see a stronger ringgit. Right now the ringgit is weak.

CONCLUSION: Although it is too early to call a trend reversal, the local market has taken a beating from sellers as funds sell out for fear of further weakness from the U.S. markets. But the technical of the Dow do not seem to suggest that a market plunge is near. Instead we are seeing a Dow rebound. If so, we expect the KLCI to rebound in tandem.

Long-term Upside Targets:1492 (Target amended on 15/6/07).

Immediate downside targets: 1334/1291/1222

Fred Tam is the owner of http://www.fredtam.com and http://www.picapital.com.my F1 Trader Online - Know when to enter & exit the markets.

Are Your Stops Being Hunted In Forex? Don't Let This Happen To You!

A stop in trading is one of the most important things you will ever use, not only does it protect your account if a trade goes against you it also defines the risk you are willing to take on a given trade.

Many traders will not give the placement of a stop any thought at all, they see it merely as a last resort, "if all else fails my stop will be hit" attitude. Stop hunting is what you will fall victim to time and time again if you do not think about where you are placing your stops. Try not to place them too tight, think outside the box and place them where you are sure if price goes the trade will no longer be valid at all. False breakouts are one of the most common trades that take out stops, in this case I always try to trade the retrace of the breakout as appose to the first breakout which reduces you stop dramatically and you can be sure that if price falls back inside the support/resistance line that was broken the trade is no longer valid.

To give you an idea of the stop size I use, I trade 3 main systems which use's 5 minute, 4hour and daily charts stops on the 5 min charts are for scalping so they are very small at 5 pips + spread. Stops on the 4 hour charts are generally around 50 pips and on the daily charts stops are around 100 pips. My stops give me room to make a mistake which is very important in the forex market, if I misjudge my entry by 20 pips I am fine because my stop is still way back behind the closest support/resistance.

It is always a good idea to try to keep your stops a good distance away from price and give the trade breathing room this ensures that the swings will not take you out, there is nothing more irritating than being taken out of a position only to have it move hundreds of pips into your favour afterwards.

If you are ever unsure where you stop should be use this little trick that has helped me in the past, choose a place you would normally put your stop. Now move it further back to the next best support/resistance, you see the first place you choose is most likely where 90% of traders have placed there stops, large institutions will be targeting these areas to trigger positions in the market. Stops are not just a last resort for your trade, they are the trade. You should be thinking about the placement of your stop as much as where you take profit.

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Forex Trading Software

If you are looking to get started trading the Forex, you will find that there are numerous software programs available (both web based and desktop based) for you to use in your trading. In fact, most brokers offer clients a software package for free or as part of their trading account. Usually the software that comes with your trading account is a very basic "bare bones" model. Sometimes, more features are available for a price. The software packages your broker provides can be an important consideration in choosing a broker. You may want to download and try some different packages using a demo account. This will give you a better idea of which software package you find most suitable to your unique style of trading.

Forex trading software comes in two basic flavors - desktop software, and web based software. Which one you choose to work with depends on your preference and other more technical factors. Obviously, the Forex market is very dynamic and you need to have the most reliable up to date connection to the data as possible. Your internet connection speed is a factor here, and if you can afford it, you really should be connecting via broadband.

Your internet connection speed is just one of the factors you should consider when selecting forex trading software. The biggest consideration should be one of security.

Generally speaking, web based forex software is more secure than a desktop based software package. Why is that? Well, with a desktop software, your information and data is stored on your hard drive thus making it vulnerable to numerous security issues. If your computer became infected by a virus, your personal data and the integrity of your trading system can become compromised. Likewise, in the event of hard drive failure, your important data can be lost. Then there is the threat of prying eyes accessing your trading systems.

Luckily, if you choose to go with a desktop based software for your forex trading, you can do some things to limit the risks. For starters, a dedicated computer just for trading the forex would be a wise investment. Due to the popularity of forex trading, there are computers made specifically with a forex traders needs in mind. Even if you cant afford a dedicated machine, you should still apply the following tips to your trading computer:

* Password protect your trading software and personal data
* Make regular backups of your trading data
* Use a anti virus program and keep it up to date
* Update your trading software regularly

If you choose to go with a web based trading software, allot of the security and maintenance issues are handled by the provider. Online based forex systems are hosted on secure servers, the same type of servers credit card processing is handled on. This gives you a great deal of protection, as your data is encrypted. Also, backups and mirrors of your account data are made by your software provider to protect you from data loss.

Aside from the security considerations, you may find that an online based trading software is simply more convenient. There is no software to download as the software runs in your regular web browser. This means that you always will have access to the latest versions and features. Also, if you travel you will certainly appreciate the ability to log in and trade from any computer with an internet connection.

As you can see, there are many options in forex trading software. You ultimately should choose to work with the software that you personally find easiest and most intuitive to use.

For more information on Forex Trading Software and Forex trading systems, visit our sites, Forex Investing, and Forex Today

Market Cap Classification

Market capitalization, or market cap, refers to the value of a company and is a measure of company size. Market capitalization is the value you get when you multiply all the outstanding shares of a stock by the price of a single share. For example, if a company has 10 million shares outstanding and its share price is $5, the market cap is $50 million. The market cap is generally listed on stock quotes you find on the internet.

Companies are grouped into market cap categories which are references to how large a company is measured by its market value. Here are the five basic market cap categories:

1) Micro cap (under $250 million): The smallest companies and riskiest stocks available. Penny stocks fall in this category.

2) Small cap ($250 million to $1 billion): Stocks with higher growth potential, but with higher risk. Typically includes new or young companies.

3) Mid cap ($1 billion to $5 billion): Some of the safety of large caps with some of the growth potential of small caps. These companies have operated in the marketplace longer than smaller companies and their stocks generally have less price volatility.

4) Large cap ($5 billion to $250 billion): Stocks for the conservative investor who wants steady appreciation with greater safety. These stocks are referred to as blue chips and include companies such as IBM.

5) Mega cap (over $250 billion): The largest companies that are typically leaders in their industry. Examples include Wal-Mart and Exxon.

There isn't universal agreement on the exact category cutoffs. Many investors prefer the three cap system of small, mid, and large, while others prefer to break it into more than the five categories listed above.

Market cap classification allows you to gauge the growth versus risk potential of a stock. Large caps experience slower growth with lower risk while small caps provide higher growth potential, but with higher risk. Market capitalization is important to consider, but dont invest just because of it. You can determine the value of a company in many ways, and market cap is just one measure of value.

You may freely reprint this article provided the following author's biography (including the live URL link) remains intact:

About The Author

Craig Tesch is the founder of X-investing, a free resource guide to investing and personal finance at http://www.xinvesting.com.