Forex trading systems are hot, you will see them everywhere - all promising you big gains. The vast majority fail to deliver and the reason is curve fitting. If you dont know what it is read on.
Definition
Curve fitting is using past data and bends the rules of the system, to fit the data and make it profitable.
Because the rules of the system have been bent on a snapshot of past data (keep in mind markets never repeat themselves exactly) it is curve fitted and chances are it will lose in real time trading.
This is really like shooting at a barn door with a gun and then drawing a bulls-eye around the shots AFTERWARDS, making them all bulls-eyes!
Hypothetical Illusions
The fact is most forex trading systems dont have a real time track record, they only have one done in hindsight.
Now making money in hindsight is easy, especially if you curve fit it, but of course trading without knowing the closing prices is much more difficult!
Most forex system vendors know there systems dont work and rely on curve fitting and hyped advertising copy to sell their systems then the forex trader wipes himself out and wonders why!
You take a loss and the vendor makes a guaranteed return selling you a junk system they dont even trade themselves!
So How Do You Spot Curve Fitting?
Well when you see a hypothetical track record, be on your guard straight away and look for the following:
1. Lots of indicators and lots of different rules (often with different rules and parameters per currency)
2. Look for a track record with extraordinary growth and absence of drawdown.
A system that exhibits the above will be curve fitted.
Dont Fall For The Hype
Really you shouldnt bother trading forex trading systems which use hypothetical track records but if you want to examine the logic, rules and parameters closely.
Many vendors also keep their rules and parameters secret and dont even tell you what they are - dont even consider these black box systems. most of the time they just make the track records up.
For some reason forex traders take hypothetical records seriously, but there not really worth anything unless you can study them and see their not curve fitted and believe me most of them are!
Play Safe
Vendors who have to use hyped advertising copy and a hypothetical track record generally dont have a product worth considering ONLY deal with vendors of forex trading systems who can back their claims up with a real audited track record over 2 years or more.
After all If they dont have the guts to trade their own system and prove it's worth why should you?
Would you take driving lessons from someone who couldn't prove they could drive? Exactly.
Next time you think of buying a forex trading system, check it out and the chances are its curve fitted and this makes you odds on to lose if you use it.
Play safe only use a system that has a real time track record.
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