Uranium Bull Market: Only Tip of the Iceberg

In mid September, Mitchell Dong, chief investment officer of Solios Asset Management told a news wire service, I think we are seeing the tip of the iceberg of financial investors entering the physical uranium market. At the Platts Nuclear Fuel Strategies conference in Washington, this past week, Mitchell Dong was a pit bull. Not only did he take extensive notes during the speeches, but he was first-in-line to question the majority of the speakers after their presentations.

Clearly, whatever initial purchases his fund or funds had made, in entering the physical uranium and equities markets, he probably wasnt finished loading up. Nearby, a trio of Greenwich, Connecticut hedge fund managers quietly listened to the presentations. Later, they lunched alone at their table while we observed them huddled in deep discussions about what bets they might place in the uranium bull market.

Long-time insiders have kept trying to put this bull market into whatever context they could. A difficult task since many of them endured a twenty-plus-year uranium drought, which only came out of hibernation the past few years. Some admitted they had nearly given up on the sector as the years passed by. Now, they and everyone else involved is trying to figure out how to make the Big Score on this amazing nuclear renaissance.

Of course there were opposing views on how to deal with the uranium price. Charles Peterson, an attorney at DC-based Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP, hinted at a more transparent market, hoping uranium might be offered on a future exchange. He compared to the accessibility of other metals where traders use speculators. Later in the day, Patricia Mohr, Vice President for Economics, at Canadas Scotiabank warned the industry that if uranium were traded on a futures market, its volatility might already have it trading at $100/pound.

Again, the uranium price worried many at the conference. Ending the HEU hung around at the back of the minds of utility executives probably because many wondered where future SWU would come from, should the Russians terminate supplies to U.S. utilities. Should preparations not be taken at this time, it would not surprise us to see a super-spike in the price of uranium which Sprott Asset Managements Kevin Bambrough has occasionally warned us about. U.S. utilities remain complacent, assured the Department of Energy will come to the rescue at the last minute. But will they?

On the outside chance we might get insights into the complex and secretive Russian mind, we cornered Andrey A. Orekhov, counselor for the Science and Technology Department at the Embassy of the Russian Federation. He briefly attended the conference to eavesdrop on what Ronald Lorentzen, Director of the Office of Policy within the U.S. Department of Commerce, had to say at his presentation with regards to ongoing Russo-U.S. negotiations. We tested the waters by talking about the new generation of nuclear reactors, and brashly asking him if he could introduce us to Sergei Kirienko, head of Russias atomic energy agency, Rosatom. Instead he referred us to a lesser light for an interview.

Then, we asked him if we had been accurate in reporting that Russias aggressive nuclear ambitions would drive the uranium price to $100/pound. Pondering our question for a while, as if weighing whether the wrong answer would lead to his next meal in a Russian prison, Orekhov looked off into a far corner of the room and responded, Who knows?

His question concisely summarized the collective thoughts of the conference. No one really knows how much higher the price of uranium will run, whether it will reach $100/pound (and higher) and how soon it might arrive at the century mark. As we noted in an earlier part of this series, Dustin Garrow remarked of a possible run to the $80 to $100/pound level. The Florida Power and Light spokesman believed $52/pound was too high.

Renaissance Could Hit a Wall

Garrow made an interesting point at the beginning of his presentation, announcing, There are now more than 400 uranium companies. The implications of his comment are wide-ranging should one pause to ponder what he meant. Fuel Cycle Week senior editor Nancy Roth addressed this in the October 3rd issue. She reported upon the events and revelations at the Platts conference, writing, Several speakers mentioned serious technology and equipment deficits that are a legacy of this dormant period (the uranium depression: 1980 2003), along with the dearth of nuclear personnel from uranium miners to nuclear engineers.

These observations swipe at both sides: uranium producers and utility end-users of the uranium. If the labor and equipment shortages fail to provide sufficient uranium for utilities, then the price is likely to rise much higher. At the same time, should nuclear power plants fail to staff up their operations, or construction delays impact the building of new reactors, a lesser quantity of supply, less than what has been projected, will be required.

To make it short and simple: this industry is still too new to realize all of the complications required to move forward. As Ms. Roth wrote in an email to us, I think the uranium industry has a real chicken-and-egg problem in reinventing itself, and I think a key indicator of the severity of the problem might be in these production costs. The cost to which she was referring was the expense required to extract uranium from the ground. In the United States, there are a handful of in situ recovery operations. That is an insufficient number to adequately calculate an average production cost for a mining operation.

What happens when another half dozen uranium properties commence new mining operations? One of the hidden problems within the uranium development sector is the lack of proven miners. Over the past year, a few existing U.S. uranium producers experienced employee raids by the newly arrived development companies. We suspect more will take place, as several companies move closer to the mine development stage. Raids are taking place because of a lack of skilled and proven personnel.

Patricia Mohr brought up another of many interesting points. Increased mining output during 2004 and 2005, but in the first half of 2006 Mohr observed, Mine production probably dropped in the first half of 2006. She believes production was about 20 percent of companies planned. She pointed out Australias Ranger mine production was lower because of a cyclone; Olympic Dam because of declining ore grades. Rugged granite, from which Namibian uranium is mined, has reportedly caused problems at this countrys Rossing mine. Mohr believes the mines output could slow down in the second half of the year.

We believe the production costs for many of the up-and-coming projects are going to be greater than expected. When was the last time a new uranium mill was built? Not in this century. When was the last great uranium deposit discovered? Twenty years ago. How does a new company calculate its start-up and operating mining and milling costs in todays dollars? Some might believe they know the answer, but we wont really know until the actual production scenario takes place. And that might be two years down the road at the very earliest. Factors such as those do puzzle the forecasters, the analysts and the industry insiders. They truly do not have a proven benchmark against which to make an accurate evaluation. The last time they could was during the uranium bull market of the 1970s.

What about those 400 uranium companies? Do you read their news releases? asked Nancy Roth. She does, we read many of them. Arent most of them just hype? she inquired. We had to agree with her assessment. But in understanding the junior uranium companies, it is the news release which attracts investors to provide market support for their stock prices. Some have no real plans but to mine the stock market, as author and long-time uranium insider Julian Steyn once told us. Over dinner, Ms. Roth provided us with an important insight. She covers the NRC hearings for various companies hoping to move their projects forward. Those who are actually meeting with NRC arent doing so for a free trip to Washington at the expense of their shareholders, but instead to bring their project into the mine development stage. Among the most recent applicants were some of our favorites, such as Uranerz Energy (AMEX: URZ), UR-Energy (TSX: URE) and Energy Metals (TSX: EMC). Another was the privately held Concentric Energy Corp.

Coincidentally, StockInterview fan Laura Stein had been emailing us to meet with Ralph Kettell, Chief Executive of Concentric Energy. Because of Ms. Steins insistence, and our review of Mr. Kettell, we met with him about his project. Aptly, he chose the Greenbelt exit on the Baltimore-Washington Parkway. For those unfamiliar with this exit, it is the road to NASA. As an electrical engineer, it was for NASA that Kettell designed the radio frequency (RF) portion of the Space to Space Communications System used in the construction of the International Space Station. Kettell also likes to seriously dabble in natural resource stocks, having been the lead investor and a director in AuEx Ventures.

No stranger to the uranium market, he had written an article for a resource website in 2003, proclaiming the coming bull market in uranium. Kettell forecast that some of his favorite stock picks, such as Strathmore Minerals then trading for about C$0.30/share, would jump by 1000 percent. Strathmores 2006 high was C$3.00.

Kettell had created an index of five uranium stocks (there werent 400 to choose from, back in 2003) from which he started at a base number of 100. Kettels favorite stocks were Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ), Denison (TSX: DEN), International Uranium Corp (TSX: IUC), JNN Resources (TSX: JNR) and Strathmore Minerals (TSX: STM). He told us this past spring, the value of his index had soared to the 3,000 level up 30 times from when he began tracking his favorite uranium stocks. Since then, the index had dropped to 2,200. We asked him in which direction he believed it was heading next. He responded, Ive looked at the technicals (technical analysis), and it should blow through the 3,000 level in 2007.

By early 2007, Kettell believes his private company, Concentric Energy, should be publicly trading. He told us he had rounded up the support of Jim Dines, Doug Casey and other newsletter writers for his private placement stock. Kettell said Pinetree Capital (TSX: PNP) was one institution backing his project. His company plans to develop the Anderson uranium mine, about 75 miles northwest of Phoenix, Arizona. The property had produced about 33,000 pounds in the 1950s. Additional exploration by Unocal and Urangesellschaft in the late 1970s demonstrated sufficient promise in the property. He told us Unocal was planning a 2,000-ton-day mill in 1978 for a proposed open pit mine.

We mention this meeting to bring home a very strong point about the future price of uranium. Upon our asking Mr. Kettell what his operating costs for the milling and mining operations at the Anderson property, he told us, About $65/pound. At least he was honest. This may not be the price level U.S. utilities want to hear about, but it might become the floor price for the future price of uranium. Perhaps, Mr. Kundalkar, the vice president from Florida Power and Light whom we mentioned during the first article in this series, should pay attention to what the uranium miners are saying. We are.

COPYRIGHT 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. StockInterviews Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market has become the most popular book ever published for uranium mining stock investors. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com

Forecasting the Future Value of Your 401(k) or 403(b)?

If youve got Microsoft Excel (or just about any other popular spreadsheet program) running on your computer, you can use its FV function to forecast the future value of your 401(k) or 403(b) account.

The FV function calculates the future value of an investment given its interest rate, the number of payments, the payment, the present value of the investment, and, optionally, the type-of-annuity switch. (More about the type-of-annuity switch a little later.)

The function uses the following syntax:

=FV(rate,nper,pmt,pv,type)

This little pretty complicated, I grant you. But suppose you want to calculate the future value of a 401(k) or 403(b) account thats already got $10,000 in it and to which you and your employer are contributing $200-a-month. Further suppose that you want to know the account balanceits future valuein 25 years and that you expect to earn 10% annual interest.

To calculate the future value of this account, you enter the following into a worksheet cell:

=FV(10%/12,25*12,-200,-10000,0)

The function returns the value 385936.13roughly $386,000 dollars.

A handful of things to note: To convert the 10% annual interest to a monthly interest rate, the formula divides the annual interest rate by 12. Similarly, to convert the 25-year term to a term in months, the formula multiplies 25 by 12.

Also, notice that the monthly payment and initial present values show as negative amounts because they represent cash outflows. And the function returns the future value amount as a positive value because it reflects a cash inflow you ultimately receive.

That 0 at the end of the function is the type-of-annuity switch. If you set the type-of-annuity switch to 1, Excel assumes payments occur at the beginning of the period (month in this case), following the annuity due convention. If you set the annuity switch to 0 or you omit the argument, Excel assumes payments occur at the end of the period following the ordinary annuity convention.

Curious about how much money you'll accumulate in your 401(k) or 403(b) retirement plan? Just use Microsoft Excel to calculate a pretty good estimate says author and CPA Stephen L. Nelson.

LLC formation author Stephen L. Nelson has written more than 150 books. Formerly an adjunct tax professor at Golden Gate Universitythe nations largest graduate tax schoolNelson is also the author of QuickBooks for Dummies. He also edits the do-it-yourself s corp incorporation web site.

How Long Should I Backtest An Online Daytrading System?

I am frequently asked how long one should backtest a online daytrading system. Though there's no easy answer, I will provide you with some guidelines. There are a few factors that you need to consider when determining the period for backtesting your online daytrading system:

Trade frequency

How many trades per day does your daytrading system generate? It's not important how long you backtest a daytrading system; it's important that you receive enough trades to make statistically valid assumptions*: If your online daytrading system generates three trades per day, i.e. 600 trades per year, then a year of testing gives you enough data to make reliable assumptions*. But if your trading system generates only three trades per month, i.e. 36 trades per year, then you should backtest a couple of years to receive reliable data.

Underlying contract

You must consider the characteristics of the underlying contract. The chart below shows the average daily volume of the e-mini S&P:

It doesn't make sense to backtest a trading system for the e-mini S&P before 1999, because the contract simply didn't exist! In my opinion it doesn't make sense to backtest an e-mini trading system before 2002 because at that time the market was completely different; less liquidity and different market participants. I believe that a reliable testing period for the e-mini S&P are the years 2002 - 2004.

The problem is that many traders over-use the functions provided by the different backtesting software packages and think more is better. Many so-called system developers try to imply that the longer you backtest the better and more robust your system will be. That's not always true.

Conclusion

When backtesting you need to know these things. It's not enough to just run a system on as much data as possible; it's important to know the underlying market conditions. In non-trending markets like the e-mini S&P you need to use trend-fading systems, and in trending markets like commodities you should use trend-following methods.

Markus Heitkoetter is a 19 year veteran of the markets and the CEO of Rockwell Trading. For more free information and tips and trick how to make consistent profits with online daytrading, visit his website http://www.rockwelltrading.com

Pivot Point Trading- 7 Guidelines For Success

What do we mean by pivot point trading? It simply means that Forex traders take into account pivot points calculated from the previous day's trading range and use them as reference points to identify support and resistance levels.

Taking the high, low, close and open values of the previous day's price action, strategic levels can be identified which may or may not have an influence on price action. Pivot point trading puts emphasis on these levels, and uses them to guide entry and exit points for trades.

However, as with any technical indicator, there are limitations and pivot point trading, to be high probability, needs to stay within certain parameters. The following 7 guidelines can help pivot point trading be more profitable:

No. 1

Pivot points should not be used as a standalone indicator. Do not enter or exit trades purely on the basis of pivot points. Use them in conjunction with other indicators such as candle patterns, Fibonacci levels, MACD, and moving averages to identify and confirm key levels of support and resistance which may provide trading opportunities.

No. 2

While some traders living in various parts of the world may calculate their pivot points according to the time zone in which they live, a fairly safe standard for calculating the levels of pivot point trading is to use GMT (Greenwich Meantime).

Midnight GMT is a very quiet time in the market with very little volatility and provides a good opportunity to calculate more accurate pivot levels going from midnight GMT to midnight GMT the following day.

No. 3

It is good to understand what is going on behind the scenes when it comes to pivot point trading. Rather than just staring at candles on a chart, understand what they actually represent.

Thousands of traders around the world, some working for large institutions and handling millions or even billions of dollars worth of currency, are taking positions according to previously established highs and lows in the market.

Pivot points draw attention to these key levels which will often be strongly defended by traders who have a lot at stake. This is the reason pivot point trading can be so successful, once a trader understands underlying reasons for price action.

No. 4

It is good to calculate mid levels in addition to the S1, S2, R1, and R2 pivot levels. Sometimes there is a significant gap between these levels and calculating a mid point gives another point of reference. Price will often be seen respecting M1, M2, M3, or M4.

To calculate mid levels, simply subtract the level below from the level above and divide by 2. (see the resource box for a free pivot point calculator)

No. 5

Pivot point trading can be a useful strategy for entering and exiting trades at the right time. A pivot point can provide a key level of support or resistance where price is likely to bounce for a 10-20 pip profit.

Or in the case of a trend, price may retrace to a pivot level before continuing its run. The retracement point at the pivot level would be a good place to put an entry order to be taken in when price comes back to retest at the pivot level.

No. 6

The Euro - US dollar pair often puts in a daily average of between 75 and 100 pips. Watch for specific behavior around the time of the London market open. Price will often come back to test a level which is a pivot point and form a distinctive candle pattern such as tweezers, or a hanging man, and then reverse and go on its 75-100 pip run for the day.

If price comes back to the M1 level check your other indicators to see if they confirm this would be a good level to go long. Likewise, if price, just around London open, tests the M4 level, check your other indicators to see if this would be a good place to go short. You may be able to get a slice of the 75-100 pip run for the day.

No. 7

Pivot point trading helps mentally in establishing the buy zone and the sell zone. Traditionally, anything above the Central Pivot Point is a Sell area, and everything below the Central Pivot Point is a Buy area.

If you go contrary to that, make sure you double check your analysis and have very good reasons for doing otherwise.

Pivot point trading is just one of an arsenal of weapons available to Forex market participants. However, it must be stated that many successful traders use just a handful of tools that become their favorites. After all, too many indicators can lead to decision paralysis.

For many traders, pivot points are a key element in their overall trading strategy. Use the 7 guidelines above to use them safely and responsibly.

For a free pivot point calculator, Fibonacci calculator and the best free economic calendars click here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/tools.html

Click here to learn how to use another indicator, the 200 EMA, in a simple yet powerful way:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/200EMA-forex-strategy.htm

Do you know the important lesson Mohammed Ali teaches us about Forex trading? Read it here:

http://www.vitalstop.com/Forex/Advisor/forex-online-trading-mohammed-ali.htm

Forex Currency Trading Online

As like many before you, when you first start trading on the Forex market you will soon realize that a lot of the traders lose money rather than gain. So if you do not want to end up in the same situation as many before you, here are some tips in relation to Forex currency trading online that can help you gain more and lose less.

1. Forget the Hype

Too often you will see sites that are promoting ways in which you can get rich through Forex trading as long as you purchase their book for $100. However, instead of spending your money on something that is probably completely worthless, all you need to do is spend some time searching the internet and you will soon discover everything you need to know and all for free.

If however you really want to learn what the top traders are doing and obtain advice from them, there are plenty of good quality books that you can purchase through such online stores as Amazon.

2. Day Trading - Forget It

Unfortunately a lot of people starting out in Forex trading have often heard that you can make good money through day trading. This is simply not true and those that have listened to this have soon learnt the hard way.

Ask any reputable vendor online and they will soon tell you that the only way you will be able to make any money and real profits in forex currency trading online is over the long term.

3. Be Smart

When it comes to Forex trading you need to be smart so it is important that you learn as much as you can about the subject as possible. Look at the various tools and systems that are available and soon you will discover that you are able to trade on the markets much more easily after just a couple of weeks.

4. You need to be a risk taker

Unfortunately with any form of trading there are some risk involved and so if you are not prepared to take any risks then forget about getting involved in Forex trading. Only those who are willing to accept the risks and be prepared to make some loses are going to be successful when it comes to Forex trading.

5. Find a simple system

Simple Forex trading systems work much better than the more complicated types. Certainly when first starting out,it is best to use a system that uses both support and resistance practices as well as breakout methodology. Plus a system that uses confirming indicators also. By keeping your system as simple as possible you will find it much easier to understand and learn everything you need to know to ensure that you maximize your gains but minimize your losses.

If you include these few tips to any plan you are devising for your Forex currency online trading then you should soon be on your way to making some decent money.

Ricky Lim runs a learn forex trading online site for beginners at www.learn-forextrading.net. Visit his site today for more forex tutorials and articles.

Following A Trading Plan = Profits

When it comes to making decisions, our minds tend to perceive and react to the information available to us, each in its own particular way. This is not something we think much about. It is a part of each of us. Trying to change this natural process is almost impossible.

This is usually not of any consequence in our everyday lives, but in the realm of investing, our perceptions and reactions, and the emotions they generate, are very often the opposite of what is needed to be successful.

How do we start making consistently "correct" trading and market timing decisions? How do we make decisions without emotions interfering? How do we trade with confidence?

The answer is simple. We follow an unemotional trading plan which keeps us on the path to profitability.

Gunslingers

Many traders, market timers, investors have no plan at all. They are like the proverbial "Gunslingers" of the old West. A news event causes the market to decline and BANG, they go short. An economic indicator comes in better than expected, the market rises, and POW they go long.

Trading by emotion, they make trades that seem solid at the time, and they hold that position until it becomes more painful to hold it than to not hold it. They may even make an occasional profit.

But that lack of focus...lack of planning, will ultimately lead to poor performance, and to outright losses.

Why do so many traders sell at bottoms, and buy at tops? It is such a well known fact that it is almost funny, except when "you" are the person at that top or bottom.

Have you (or someone you know) ever said, "well.. I finally decided to go long (or short), so expect the market to reverse on me... again." Actually expecting "ahead of time" that the trade will be unprofitable.

You will not hear that from someone following a "trading plan." He or she knows that not all trades will be successful, but that following the "plan" will avoid emotional trading errors, and lead to long term profits.

Disciplined Trading

Trading (market timing) requires "discipline" ... Some have it, and others that wish for success must learn it.

The benefit of of following a proven trading plan is twofold.

First - if you have a plan, you'll be able to ignore all the data that doesn't affect your trading. The media is rough on traders - at any given time, you could find ten reasons to buy and ten reasons to sell. That emotional roller coaster is a nightmare, but if you are following a plan, you won't talk yourself out of good trades, nor will you keep yourself in bad ones.

Second - our emotions cannot cause us to make unprofitable decisions. We have a plan! All we need do is follow the plan. Never second guess it. That is allowing your emotions to come back into play.

Only through following a trading plan will you save yourself a great deal of frustration, and successfully grow your investments.

Currency Traders Secret Weapon - Support & Resistance

Do you know why only five percent of all currency traders are successful? Do they know something that we don't? The truth is that successful forex traders use the same technical indicators that you and I use. The difference lies in accurately interpreting these indicators. A common indicator used by forex traders is support and resistance. Let us see how support and resistance are used in forex trading.

Support and Resistance is the foundation of most of the top trading systems. Support and resistance levels represent pauses in the trend when investors reconsider all information. The idea of support and resistance is vital to understanding and interpreting the forex market. Support and resistance are basically price bands where the price will probably stop falling or rising respectively. Support and resistance are created because price has memory. Support and resistance are by far the most important forex trading technical indicator you will ever find, and the best forex trading option if you want to be on the right side of the market.

Support and resistance are like a floor and ceiling, with prices contained between them. Support like resistance is rarely a precise price; it is more often a relatively contained price range, frequently in the vicinity of past technical patterns. Support and resistance levels on bar and candlestick charts are a major component in the study of technical analysis. Support and resistance come in all varieties and strengths. The length of time that a support or resistance level exists helps to determine the strength or weakness of that level. When a level of support or resistance is penetrated, price tends to thrust forward sharply as the crowd notices the breakout and jumps in to buy or sell. When a level is penetrated but does not attract a crowd of buyers or sellers, it often falls back below the previous support or resistance.

Support

Support is defined as a price level below which it is supposedly difficult for a currency pair or market to fall. Additionally it is a price level at which a currency pair or other security stops falling at least temporarily, hence the name. Support represents the level at which buying pressure is strong enough to absorb and overcome selling pressure. Support defines that level where buyers are strong enough to keep price from falling further. Support lines turn into resistance and resistance lines turn into support.

Resistance

Resistance is the opposite of support and represents a price level or area over the market where selling pressure overcomes buying pressure and a price advance is turned back. Resistance defines that level where sellers are too strong to allow prices to raise further. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.

So we have learned that: Understanding the concept and significance of support and resistance is important for profitable forex trading. One aspect of its unique quality is that support and resistance is defined as an area or a zone not a single price level. One of the basic precepts of support and resistance is that once a support level is violated it becomes a likely new resistance level and when a resistance level is penetrated it becomes a new support level.

Start practice trading using support and resistance on a demo account right away. Go out there and continue to research this indicator as well as other technical indicators. Once you master interpreting forex technical indicators profits will surely follow.

Have you ever desired the income and freedom of being a home based forex trader? Visit the author's (Kenneth Aikens) website for more powerful forex trading information: forex training - forex article directory.

The Stockmarket's Red Glare

The Whitney Theater (Hamden, CT) marquee advertised movies for children ("Gidget"..."The High and the Mighty"). Every kids matinee, the manager would pick a ticket out of a large popcorn box. He would give the winner candy, free soda and popcorn, or a toy connected to the movie.

One afternoon he read the numbers on my ticket stub. The prize was an air-pumped rocket. My friend Elly and I went to an open field, pumped it as hard as we could, and let it go. It went straight up, stalled, lost momentum, nose-dived and hit the sidewalk.

Stock Markets soar and crash too. Stock Market traders sometimes become kids with a toy. Every day the market pumps itself up. Indices spiral upward making many giddy with kiddish delight; nobody wants this rocket to fall from its lofty heights. With little notice, the market stalls, momentum is lost, and markets crash.

Simple laws of gravity inform us that upward moves of any force require energy and momentum. The stock market is ruled by the same laws. Markets cannot, will not, and have not moved in one direction without correcting. This means that bull markets are not forever, and bear markets are bearable.

"What happened?" My toy rocket did not give me any warning when falling to reality. Stock markets project warning signs when upward momentum stalls. You never want markets to go up forever. It is best when markets move up, pause, contract, and build a base before making their next move.

A base-line provides support for a market index like the Dow or the S&P. Long support lines give investors solace because it takes a lot of sellers to break through it. A support line or base (see image) is a trading pattern of stock buying and selling with little price change.

No support means the market index has potential to keep falling until it finds a support line/base or bottom. Markets stall when reaching a high price on average daily stock trading volume. Bulls (buyers) will strain to push the markets upward, but Bears (sellers) thwart the momentum. An excessive number of sellers (many more than the average) can force an index/stock to new lows.

"Make it go higher!" My toy rocket did not reach heights too fast. Elly and I were ten or eleven years old; we wanted that rocket to disappear in the clouds. Many investors act the same way; they want the markets to go up and up because it means more money. When markets hit successive days of positive returns, investors get starry-eyed. We like it when Neil Cavuto (among others) reports new highs for the Dow (read " The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Failing the Average Investor" by Steven Selengut).

Dizzying heights cause most investors to miss subtle market moves. Stocks/indices must move higher on strong buying volume. When markets reach a bench-marked high level, getting past it will take three times the average number of daily buyers.If the price stalls at the bench-marked high and the buying volume is less than the daily average, index prices decline.

"Don't worry." Elly never worried; I always worried. When that rocket went off, I feared it would break a window or hurt someone. Elly said, "Just pump it Ray and let it go!" Some stock investors never worry. Wise Wall Streeters know that "The market needs to climb a wall of worry." War, high oil prices, poor consumer sentiment, and Federal Reserve rate increases are walls of worry. Euphoric investors topple markets.

Something to Fear The Vix Index is the "fear index" When the Vix spikes, worry increases; when the Vix is down, optimism is excessive. Today, May 22, 2006), the Vix spiked.

The VIX "is a good indicator of the level of fear or greed in U.S. and global capital markets. When investors are fearful, the VIX level is significantly higher than normal." (Antognelli, Ferreira, McArdle, and Traub. "Fear and Greed in Global Asset Allocation." The Journal of Investing. (Spring 2000), pp. 27 - 32). Every rocket must return to earth for refueling. I learned this with my friend Elly and my toy rocket.

Want to build a toy rocket? Gary Rollins tells you how in his articleBuilding A Model Rocket Can Be A Great Learning Experience

Ray Randall serves clients as a registered investment advisor with his firm, Ethos Advisory Services, Essex, Massachusetts Ethos Advisory Services. He has wide experience within the financial services industry, writes a weekly newsletter for Ethos Advisory Services, and coordinates the developments at Echievements.com. Ray holds a Masters Degree from Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary, Hamilton, MA. You may call Ray (617-275-5565).

Hot Share Tips

It's official! Australia is the largest nation of shareholders with direct share ownership more than doubling since 1997 to 40.6 per cent. That figure rises to 54 per cent of all adult Australians when managed funds are taken into account.

We're also trading more shares. The Australian Stock Exchange reports the average number of trades has nearly trebled in the past year to 79,000 a day.

Large new floats such as Telstra has fueled the growth of private share ownership. For example, almost one million of the two million people who invested in our largest telecommunications company were first time investors. They haven't been disappointed with their return on capital and many have branched out into other well-known stock such as Coles-Myer, Qantas, AMP, Commonwealth Bank and others.

Smaller and less-well known companies are also floating on the stock exchange in record numbers. In the last half of 1999 more than 104 new companies went public.

Share ownership in Australia cuts across all age groups, socio-economic, ethnic and geographical boundaries. The motivation for most investors is to make money and create wealth.

Newer investors have been in a rising or "bull" market and seen their so-called "paper profits" soar. Internet and technology based companies have also been floated in record numbers with astonishing results. Many "Mum and Dad" investors are instant experts and looking for that next "dot com" company on which to make their fortune.

But what are the keys to successful share investing? Ron Bennetts is Principle Manager WA for stockbrokers J.B. Were and author of "The Australian Stock Market: A Guide for Players, Planners and Procrastinators".

His advice is simple, "invest some time as well as money, look for quality management in quality companies with earnings growth."

Bennetts defines these companies as ones that are strong and likely to increase their earnings per share. He believes the technology area is a growth sector and the bubble may burst but there will be growth.

"Look at the companies that have the qualities rather than a marketing plan that has little chance of bearing fruit," he says.

One of the keys too successful investing is diversification and Bennetts says you don't need more than 12 stocks to diversify your portfolio. He also believes 15 per should be overseas shares and this is often 25 per cent for more aggressive investors.

On seeking independent advice versus investing yourself, Bennetts says "the cost of buying and selling is often viewed as a false economy" and suggests first time investors seek professional advice.

Ten Tips for First Time Share Investors

1.Set your objectives and work out a budget for how much you want to invest.

2.Avoid speculating. Do some homework about the risks of investing in the stock market and spend time gaining knowledge on how the stock market works.

3.Take a long-term view of your investment.

4.Avoid reacting to short-term pressure and expect some volatility in the market.

5.Identify quality shares in a growth sector. Look for good quality management in industries likely to grow in the future.

6.Diversify your portfolio to spread your risk. This should ideally include about 10 stocks. Less than 10 are not enough diversification and more than 15 is too hard to handle.

7.Compliment your Australian share portfolio with international shares. Exposure overseas can typically be through managed funds.

8.Buy into a managed fund if you only have small amounts of money to invest. A managed fund is an investment where you have a manager that gives you diversification in pooled funds with other investors. To buy direct most advisors believe you need a minimum of $50,000 to do anything meaningful.

9.Monitor your portfolio as closely as possible on the performance of the companies you are investing in.

10.Seek professional advice from a qualified stockbroker or financial planner.

Thomas Murrell MBA CSP is an international business speaker, consultant and award-winning broadcaster. Media Motivators is his regular electronic magazine read by 7,000 professionals in 15 different countries.

You can subscribe by visiting http://www.8mmedia.com. Thomas can be contacted directly at +6189388 6888 and is available to speak to your conference, seminar or event. Visit Tom's blog at http://www.8mmedia.blogspot.com.

Russia Says NO Sanctions for Iran!

Russia and China are both big suppliers and trading partners with Iran and much of what they trade is advanced weapons systems and military hardware. Things like rocket launchers, long-range missiles, uranium stock for enrichment and guns. Iran has a million-man army and is currently bordered with Iraq. We have seen military hardware from Iran in the hands of the insurgency in Iraq.

Iran wishes to enrich uranium and make nuclear weapons and their president has already promised to; Blow Israel off the Map. Even worse Iran is sponsoring Hezbollah and other international terrorist organizations to the tune of over $100 million per year and you can see how this is escalating.

The first world nations of the Western World wish to place sanctions on Iran and yet Russia says no sanctions for Iran and therefore will continue to sell them weapons to fight in a future war. If other nations stopped trading with Iran and Russia continues to trade with them and Russia also continues to sell jet fighter planes to countries like Venezuela, whose president also met with the Iranian leader then we have a real problem.

As North Korea is testing nuclear weapons and wants to test a nuclear bomb today and then sell these things to Iran and sell them nuclear weapons, we are into dangerous territory. If Iran gives nuclear weapons to international terrorist organizations that they already sponsor then we can expect a nuclear bomb detonation in a major Western World city within the next two years, will it be your city? If we fail at the present time to do anything about this that will be the most likely future. Please consider all this in 2006.

"Lance Winslow" - Online Think Tank forum board. If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance; www.WorldThinkTank.net/. Lance is a guest writer for Our Spokane Magazine in Spokane, Washington

Estate- How To Lower The Price of Gas

Gas prices seem near all-time highs and the summer driving season hasnt even started yet! A recent email presented a simple solution that will force gas prices back to the $1.25 a gallon range. Read on for details and to learn basic principals that may make investing more profitable.

Have you ever received one of those chain emailsthe kind where you are supposed to forward it to 10 of your friends? My wife received one this morning. The email contained the simple solution to the gas crisis. Supposedly, the solution was created by a high-level executive at a major U.S. corporation and an engineer that worked for an oil services firm. These guys should know their stuff, right? Wrong.

The solution proposed was that we should all decide to stop buying gas from ExxonMobil. If we stopped buying gas from them then they would be forced to lower gasoline prices to tempt us to buy from them again. The email said that we consumers need to teach the Big Boys that we are in charge, not them.

The Laws of Supply and Demand, the basis for capitalism, are taught in Economics 101. The law says that the market price of a good or service will be determined based on how much of it is available and how much buyers are willing to spend for it. This principle is one of the underlying reasons that bond, real estate and stock prices move up and down.

Lets look at salt as an example. In centuries past, salt was hard to come by and many people needed it. At one time it was so valuable, it was worth its weight in gold.

Thats not the case nowadays. Salt is very inexpensive. The container its sold in probably cost more than the salt inside it. Why? Because the supply of salt is high and the demand for it is low. Salt is easily mined in vast quantities. Also, refrigeration and the use of other preservatives drastically cut demand.

This supply and demand law is the reason the simple solution to reducing the price of gasoline cant work. First, gasoline is a commodity product with a limited supply. If you only switch the outlet from which you purchase gasoline, you arent reducing the demand. The same amount of gasoline will be sold, keeping demand, and therefore the market price, level. It may hurt ExxonMobil but will help someone else.

Reducing the price of gasoline by decreasing demand will require that people use less gasoline. That means we need to carpool, ride bicycles, walk or drive more fuel-efficient vehicles. In the last year or so weve seen that demand remains strong even when prices rise by a dollar or more. So demand probably wont change until prices are much higher than they are today.

Second, the simple demand solution doesnt take into account the fact that there is a global market for oil. Gasoline is produced by refining oil. ExxonMobil doesnt set the price of oil, the market does. Even if demand is reduced in America, the demand elsewhere continues to increase. The demand in China and India is growing so rapidly that prices will go up even if we cut back here in America.

Third, the supply of oil must be factored into the equation. There hasnt been a discovery of a major oil-field in decades. The amount of oil pumped from an oil-field doesnt stay the same. It will naturally decrease over time. There have been improvements made in getting the oil out of the ground, but overall, the number of barrels a day pumped is declining. For instance, did you know that the production of OPEC is lower today than it was in 2005?

So this simple solution obviously wont work. I believe that there is little we can do in the United States to significantly lower the price of oil. There simply isnt enough oil to meet the needs of the world economy. Understanding that affects how I manage my clients portfolios.

As an investor, understanding the Laws of Supply and Demand will help you select where you should invest. Avoiding industries where supply is increasing faster than demand will reduce your losses. Investing in industries where demand is growing faster than supply can increase your profits.

Nationally-syndicated financial columnist and Certified Financial Planner Jeffrey Voudrie provides personal, in-depth money management services and advice to select private clients throughout the USA. Hell answer your financial question FREE at http://www.guardingyourwealth.com

2 Simple Tips to Profitably Trading

Placing a trade is relatively easy; all you need to do is specify how many shares you want and puff all is done. But getting out could be a tricky task and this often time separate profitable trades from the non-profitable ones. So lets examine some simple tips for getting out.

Tip # 1

Stop Losses as the name implies is meant to reduce you losses so simply let them do the job. If you have placed your trade correctly with the proper risk-reward calculation you need not worry about what is happening, you won't be right all the time but if you cut you losses rightly you live to trade (your account in this sense) another day. The market never follows a straight line, most time there will be a test of previous highs or lows. Place you stoploss below the low or above the high allowing some wiggle room to avoid getting stopped out prematurely when those test occur.

Using this principle to set your stoploss will keep the emotion out of your trade and make you more profitable. Also you should not be risking more than 2% (at most) of you trading account on a trade (some will argue about 5% but I dont find that comfortable so I dont advice anyone to do it). Find a percentage that is comfortable and suitable to keep you in the game for long. Stick with it, this will help you psychologically to withstand whatever the market throws at you.

Tip # 2

As you are considering entering a position you should also consider target when to fold em . These targets should be logically placed, not based on wishful thinking remember market will do what it wants not what you want. Some ideal points to take profit include:

Previous Resistance or Supports

Pivot points (Resistance or Supports)

Trend lines

Moving Averages

Strategy-specific targets

Yeah, I know you should let your profit run. But the key to profitable trading is to take a part of the profit off the table at your initial target, after which you can consider other target levels. This could be done manually or by using automatic trailing.

The key points here are:

1. Stoploss orders are suppose to reduce you loss so let them do the job.

2. Place them properly and they will keep you out of trouble and make you profitable

3. Place your stoploss at logical point with some wiggle room

4. Take some profits off the table then trail you remaining position

Did you find those tips on stoplosses useful? Join the league of successful traders find out more here

I'm Lanre a Private Investor/Trader, Salsa Music fan/dancer, E-marketer, Info-System and Data Mining Researcher

http://www.squidoo.com/swingingforprofit

Price to Earnings Ratio - P/E

After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the next number everyone looks at is the P/E ratio.

P/E is the ratio of a company's share price to its per-share earnings.

A P/E ratio of 10 means that the company has 1 of annual, per-share earnings for every 10 in share price. (Earnings by definition are after all taxes etc.)

A company's P/E ratio is computed by dividing the current market price of one share of a company's stock by that company's per-share earnings. A company's per-share earnings are simply the company's after-tax profit divided by number of outstanding shares. A company that earned 5M last year, with a million shares outstanding, had earnings per share of 5. If that company's stock currently sells for 50/share, it has a P/E of 10. At this price, investors are willing to pay 10 for every 1 of last year's earnings.

P/Es are traditionally computed with trailing earnings (earnings from the past 12 months, called a trailing P/E) but are sometimes computed with leading earnings (earnings projected for the upcoming 12-month period, called a leading P/E).

For the most part, a high P/E means high projected earnings in the future. But actually the P/E ratio doesn't tell a whole lot, but it's useful to compare the P/E ratios of other companies in the same industry, or to the market in general, or against the company's own historical P/E ratios.

Some analysts will exclude one-time gains or losses from a quarterly earnings report when computing this figure, others will include it. Adding to the confusion is the possibility of a late earnings report from a company; computation of a trailing P/E based on incomplete data is rather tricky. (It's misleading, but that doesn't stop the brokerage houses from reporting something.) Even worse, some methods use so-called negative earnings (i.e., losses) to compute a negative P/E, while other methods define the P/E of a loss-making company to be zero. Worst of all, it's usually next to impossible to discover the method used to generate a particular P/E figure, chart, or report.

Like other indicators, P/E is best viewed over time, looking for a trend. A company with a steadily increasing P/E is being viewed by the investors as becoming more speculative. And of course a company's P/E ratio changes every day as the stock price fluctuates.

The P/E ratio is commonly used as a tool for determining the value of a stock. A lot can be said about this little number, but in short, companies expected to grow and have higher earnings in the future should have a higher P/E than companies in decline.

For example, if a company has a lot of products in the pipeline, I wouldn't mind paying a large multiple of its current earnings to buy the stock. It will have a large P/E. I am expecting it to grow quickly. A rule of thumb is that a company's P/E ratio should be approximately equal to that company's growth rate.

PE is a much better comparison of the value of a stock than the price. A 10 stock with a PE of 40 is much more "expensive" than a 100 stock with a PE of 6. You are paying more for the 10 stock's future earnings stream. The 10 stock is probably a small company with an exciting product with few competitors. The 100 stock is probably pretty staid - maybe a buggy whip manufacturer.

It's difficult to say whether a particular P/E is high or low, but there are a number of factors you should consider!

First: It's useful to look at the forward and historical earnings growth rate. (If a company has been growing at 10% per year over the past five years but has a P/E ratio of 75, then conventional wisdom would say that the shares are expensive.)

Second: It's important to consider the P/E ratio for the industry sector. (Food products companies will probably have very different P/E ratios than high-tech ones.)

Finally: A stock could have a high trailing-year P/E ratio, but if the earnings rise, at the end of the year it will have a low P/E after the new earnings report is released.

Thus a stock with a low P/E ratio can accurately be said to be cheap only if the future-earnings P/E is low.

If the trailing P/E is low, investors may be running from the stock and driving its price down, which only makes the stock look cheap.

Ioannis - Evangelos C. Haramis was born in Greece in 1951 and he studied in Greece, USA and in Belgium. He has been active in the stock markets since 1972. Since 2002 he is New Business Development Managing Director at an Investment Bank and the publisher of http://www.greekshares.com/

Copyright 2005 I.E.C. Haramis

haramis@greekshares.com

Annuity Lead Generation

If you want to generate more annuity leads from your marketing efforts, here are five annuity lead generation tips you should consider:

Your Audience: Whether you are marketing on the Internet, using direct-mail, or creating display ads, marketing to the right audience is crucial. Even the best marketing piece or sales presentation is worthless if it's presented to people who are not interested!

Do your research. Who is your target audience? What do they read? What are their fears? What are their desires? These are just some of the questions you should ask, and once you have the answer you are on your way to uncovering a hungry market.

Benefits: Although it's important to know your products thoroughly, it's equally as important to know the benefits of each feature. Agents are so focused on how an annuity works that they often lose sight of the benefits. It's what drives your prospect to respond to your offer or sign the application.

A good exercise is to squeeze out as many benefits you can for each feature of your annuity, and write them down. This will not only help you in your annuity lead generation efforts, but it will help you sell more annuities as well.

Do you really want to market a product?: One thing is for certain, if you're marketing a financial product like an annuity, you can expect small response rates. The reason for this is that your potential prospects have been hit with advertisement after advertisement on the advantages of owning products like annuities. As a result, your prospect is more likely to throw your marketing in the trash, or simply click delete.

An alternative to marketing annuities on the front end is to create what is called a lead generator. A lead generator comes in many forms, but the most common is an information product. In this case it would be a booklet, report, or something similar. Do not mistake this for a brochure. A lead generator, written properly, works more like a sophisticated sales letter.

Instead of advertising an annuity, you would advertise your lead generator. The key is to use the lead generator as a tool to capture your prospects contact information, and as a result, you build an extremely valuable list that most agents and financial advisors would crawl over broken glass to own.

Systemize: Whether you decide to market an annuity on the front end or use a lead generator, it's important to systematize your marketing system. Studies show that it can take up to 17 contacts to make a sale. In other words, for every lead you generate, you should have a sequence of follow-ups ready to go.

Test: Another important area you should consider is testing small. Once you decide upon your market and how you want to generate leads, test a small ad or test a small number of names on a well selected list. If your response rates do not provide you with a decent return on investment, you haven't wasted a lot of money.

Secondly, you can find out where you went wrong in your marketing system and fix it. Once you have a profitable annuity lead generation system put together, you can roll it out on a bigger scale.

A successful annuity lead generation program has the best chance of success when you target the right audience, uncover the benefits of your product, choose the right approach, follow-up regularly, and test small (to get the kinks out).

Copyright 2006 Brian Maroevich

Brian Maroevich is webmaster for http://www.insurance-leads-advisor.com/annuity-leads.html Brian is Direct Marketing entrepreneur and has written courses on lead generation and marketing for insurance agents, financial planners, and small businesses.

Investing for Your Self

The title says it all investing is not about following what others say, but instead about understanding what type of financial outcomes you want and how best to achieve them. This calls for independent (but informed) thinking that is aligned to your specific needs.

As a result of the internet there is a phenomenal amount of information available to investors today. Companies financial statements are readily available, as are analysts reports and financial news sites that provide summary information on both the market and individual investments. One of the dangers is that investors may take such sources of information as unbiased and objective. Instead each should be viewed as just what it is a source of information presented for a specific purpose, with the information being shaped to that purpose.

This is not to say that investors should ignore such information, but instead that they should use their own judgment in sifting through it and making decisions about what investments are best for them. And in many ways the particular investments made are less critical than two other factors that will impact the long term value of ones portfolio.

How soon you get started Many have written about the power of compounding, but it definitely bears repeating. Regardless of how much one invests, the sooner it is begun the longer one will have for the gains to compound, creating an exponential growth that will result in a much larger portfolio than if one had started later in life and made larger investments.

Dont loose big It takes a 100% gain to make up for a 50% loss, so it is important to avoid a significant loss of capital by either investing in things that cant or are unlikely to go down, or to take a limited loss if they do. Of course everyones risk tolerance is different, but one of the more consistent practices of the wealthy is that they tend to invest conservatively.

Investing for your self then means being aware of what you want, and making sure that your investment decisions are in line with your values and priorities. Although others (websites, newsletters, paid advisors) can provide you with interesting and useful insights, their interests will never be as closely aligned to your interests as your attention can and should be focused on self.

2006 Duke Okes

Duke Okes helps individuals and organizations perform more productivity and professionally. He can be reached at http://www.aplomet.com

Juggling Economic Balls

Lisa and I walked 5 miles around Boston to celebrate our wedding anniversary. The Swan boats, Italian food in the Northend, a new "doo" for Lisa on Newbury Street, and new summer sweaters for me("About time you got some sweaters with bright colors!", Lisa said).

At Fanueil Hall Marketplace we watched "Formerly known as 'Jim the Juggler,' now known simply as "Jim, from The Jim Show." Jim does daffy juggling as children giggle and parents laughed (we laughed and giggled). Jim balanced on a large beach ball while juggling. I cannot stand on a beach ball nor can I juggle. Yet every morning my brain attempts the economic juggle, a dance registered investment advisors do in their office (privately). No need to mention the balls required, but here is an outline of what each ball lofted represents.

Each subject has current relevance, especially when the market movers sell more stock than they buy. I will define and explain the relevance in my opinion.

• Interest Rates
• Bond Rates
• Inflation

Other influences driving the stock market have aggregate affect, but individually lack market-moving clout. So, let's look at what each subject means to the market.

Interest Rates: Lisa's grandmother laments about the Bush administration while she longs for Jimmy Carter. "Those were the good ole days when the banks paid you for investing!" She remembers a call from a Florida stock broker offering her a 15% return on her $25,000 deposit. Of course, she and "Pa" never calculated their real rate of return (The inflation rate from June 1986 to June 1989 was 13.33% leaving 2.67% pre-tax real-rate of return)

Interest rates and inflation are the horse and cart of the economy. High Interest rates do not guarantee low inflation, nor that Lisa's grandmother gets a "good-return" on her money. However, higher interest rates manage economies by affecting borrowing, corporate expansion, merger/acquisition activity (notice it slowed down on June 5, 2007), and currency values (U.S. dollar versus the Yen, as an example). Finally, the stock market dislikes high interest rates because there is less risk when buying bonds. You still with me?

News Flash! "Tracy Withers reports that "New Zealand's central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate to a record 8 percent, saying housing demand and consumer spending are fanning inflation. The currency rose to a 22-year high"

"Skellerup Holdings Ltd., which exports rubber goods used in medicine and irrigation, this week said full-year profit will fall by 34 percent because of the currency's gain. The company is planning to stop some local production and fire workers because it is cheaper to make goods overseas, it said."

Interest rate increases control inflation and can instigate sector recessions.

2. OK. On to Bond values. The bond market is all about the "cost of money". Cheap money means mortgages, corporate buyouts, and stock market opportunity.

How come the bond market does not control interest rates? Perhaps because there is no immediate consensus, and bond traders might not consider inflation's nasty economic slaps the way Federal Reserve Bankers do. Federal Reserve Bankers line their jackets and underwear with fabric imprints reading "Inflation". Nothing matters more. At the Federal Reserve Bank water cooler, it's all about inflation.

Bond traders are not numb to economic indicators. Sell-off's in bonds push interest rates up and bond values/prices down. Bond traders don't take risks with an greater courage than you or I. No one wants to lose money.

Joseph Keating, Chief Investment Officer for First American Asset Management thinks bond yields are now giving "competition" to stocks. Investors are observing bond yields, and consider bonds the "safer bet". Stock buyers need a "premium" when buying stocks due to stock risk. This is known as "stock risk-premium". When risk premiums are high, bonds fly.

Supply and demand drives pricing. So when bond buyers are attracted to higher yields, pricing gets tighter (bond prices go up and bond yields go down). This bond buying brings lower yields or lower interest rates in the bond market. Lower interest rates in the bond market decreases the risk premium making stocks attractive. When risk premiums are low, stocks grow. Fascinating, don't you think?

Bond traders tend, in my opinion, to give weight to economic growth rather than to the value of the dollar. Dollar values may tell us more about inflation than any other indicator. Every commodity in America (and the dollar is no longer a commodity) is dollar-priced. If the dollar is down in value against other currencies, does it suggest that prices are inflated? Does this mean that someday, holders of the dollar will want more for what they can get with their lower-valued dollars? It seems so.

Inflation: No wonder the "Fed" worries about inflation. The insidious affect gets little attention from the public, but the result devastates buying power.

Tracking inflation started in 1914. Not much relevance tracking inflation from 1914 to now. However, we could try it from January 1997 to January 2007. From then to now, the inflation rate is 27.14%. Now, let's calculate what that means to your spending power. We can calculate the affect of inflation: $1+($1 x .2714)= $1.2714 or $1.27. This means your investment account per thousand must earn at least $270 more per thousand just to keep up with inflation. The current Inflation Rate is 2.57%.

``Inflation causes reduced consumer spending, it squeezes profit margins,'' said John Kornitzer, who manages $6 billion at Kornitzer Capital Management in Shawnee Mission, Kansas. (Bloomberg.com, U.S. Stocks Retreat on Inflation Concern..., Michael Patterson)

What do you prefer? High interest rates or low inflation? Juggle them if you can; for me, logic recommends asset allocation.

As a registered investment advisor, Ray Randall provides clients with tools to manage risk control as clients work toward investment goals. You may read more about him at Ethos Advisory.com Ray also manages the article bank and resource directory found at Echievements.com. Would you like to know how much risk your temperament permits? Fill out a request for a no-cost report on the Ethos Advisory Services contact page.

Futures Contracts - Profitable Investment Alternatives?

With the growing popularity of futures trading, more and more people are jumping into this interesting form of investing. People quickly find out that futures contracts are vastly different than agreements to purchase common stocks; with futures contracts, you are not actually buying a particular commodity, you are obtaining the right to purchase the underlying asset during a particular time period.

Pork Bellies?

Another difference between investing in the stock market and investing in futures contracts is the asset itself. Of course stocks are the assets involved in the stock market, while the commodity assets in futures contracts include:

Currencies The currency market is one of the best known commodities, trading the likes of the British pound and the American dollar.

Interest Rate Futures T-Bonds represent long-term interest rates and Eurodollars are for short-term interest rates.

Energy Futures Natural gas, heating oil and crude oil futures are the most widely known in this sector.

Food Sector Coffee, orange juice and sugar are well known commodities in this sector.

Metals Gold, silver and copper are traditionally strong commodities.

Agricultural Wheat, coffee, cotton, soybeans, pork bellies and corn futures are among those that are best known.

With so many futures contracts available, it can be difficult to decide which commodities interest you, especially if you are new to commodities trading. Sometimes it can be helpful when you start trading to begin with more popular commodities.

Below are five of the most popularly traded futures contracts:

1.S&P 500 E-mini This is extremely popular for those investing in the futures markets. The E-mini can be traded electronically 24 hours a day, five days a week. In addition, the E-mini has most of the same advantages of the regular S&P 500 commodity but the cost of investment is much less.

2.E-mini NASDAQ 100 The E-mini NASDAQ 100 follows the movement of the NASDAQ 100. Like the S&P 500 E-mini, this futures contract can be electronically traded and the contract and the amount of margin you have to set aside to trade the contract are smaller than a standard contract. Since most individuals don't have large enough accounts to trade regular contracts for the NASDAQ 100, the E-mini works out great.

3.Light Sweet Crude Oil Probably the most famous commodity traded is oil futures. When you see the price of oil discussed on the evening news or in an investment newsletter, this is exactly what they are discussing.

4.Gold If oil isnt the most famous futures contract, then gold surely is. A gold contract tracks the price variations of one ounce of gold. Gold became an important part of the US economy when the United States went to the Gold Standard in the 1970s. Since then, the price of gold changes dramatically, almost always in the opposite direction of the US dollar. Gold investments are frequently used as hedge funds because of the relationship with the US dollar.

5.E-mini Euro FX - The E-mini Euro FX contract tracks the movement of the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Euro. The "E-mini" means that the contract and the amount of margin you have to set aside to trade these futures contracts are smaller than regular contracts. Most individuals don't have large enough accounts to trade a regular contract for the Euro, so E-minis are excellent investment strategies.

Conclusion

Futures contracts provide interesting and potentially profitable investment alternatives to many investors. Understanding the investment basics of futures contracts and commodities such as these will help you to be a more successful trader when it comes to futures contracts.

http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/1_21_/candlestick.asp A site dedicated to stock market investing using Japanese Candlesticks

Forex Day Trading Systems - The Opportunities Are Endless

Forex day trading systems offer you one of todays most lucrative and promising income opportunities. As the name implies, the day traders in Forex day trading system are concerned with what happens in the market today, not tomorrow or coming weeks or months whatever happens in the market, it happens today.

We all know that the Forex market is the largest financial market in the world and it is a 24-hour market. With the opportunity of flexible day trading, the Forex day trading system lets a Forex trader choose his/her most convenient time to trade in the Forex market.

In a Forex day trading system, you require quite less starting capital. With Forex brokers allowing traders to open trading accounts with less than $250, the Forex day trading system is open for everyone.

The main job of the day traders is to capture the intraday price swing. During each trading day in Forex day trading system the overall foreign currency trading volume is determined by the market time i.e. the times when the markets open and the times when these markets overlap with each other.

With each passing moment, the Forex currency trading volume remains high, but it goes to the peak when the European and US markets open at the same time from 1 pm GMT to 4 pm GMT.

During day trading, a day trader quickly buys a large number of foreign currencies at a time and sells it once they see that the price rises within a day.

However, it is very important for the day traders to understand how margin works in Forex day trading system, how much time they will have to meet a margin call and what is the potential for getting into it.

Forex day trading system is not for everyone because it involves significant risks. You should not start day trading with money that you cannot afford to lose. Since your job is to capture various price swings during the day, and the trade opens and closes on the same day, your profit would also be less than the trade that is set to meet long-term goal.

Forex day trading system takes you to one of the most promising business segments. According to the latest figures around 90% of the Forex trades are day trades.

However, before you venture into the Forex day trading system, you need to understand the basics of day trading along with the Forex techniques.

Once you know all these you can discover how to trade for yourself and not to rely on others. Remember, Forex day trading system is not only very glitzy and glamorous on the surface but it also is very financially rewarding.

Paul Bryan is a successful and experienced Forex trader and also the webmaster for http://www.investawise.com, bringing you all the latest Forex news, reviews and advice.

The Current Financial Market Situation

The last two days the stock market has recovered some lost ground. On Friday, it recovered because of the Fed action to reduce the discount rate. Much was said about this but what does it really mean? It means that banks can borrow money from the Fed at a reasonable market rate that hopefully allows them to invest and earn a profit. This helps with liquidity. It does not, however, address the most fundamental issues facing the market, unless it results in an overall reduction in interest rates along the yield curve.

Let me explain this. The basic problem with the "subprime" crisis is that liberal lending standards have resulted in large pools of assets that investors of all sorts have purchased at relatively low spreads over the market interest rates. This means that there is a low risk premium built into those investments. If in fact, the underlying mortgages have higher than expected default rates, higher foreclosure rates, and higher loss rates, the investors are not fairly compensated and the investments in those bonds are not worth what was paid for them. While we cannot predict the future, it appears that this will in fact be the case. Mortgage default rates are increasing, real estate values are decreasing, and the likely result is that more losses will accrue on those portfolios and the bonds will be worth less than full value.

Now let's say that you are a Hedge fund. If you purchased a lot of these bonds and in order to increase the return on the equity put into your Hedge fund, you leveraged those bonds by borrowing against them, then the value of your assets may be less relative to the debt you owe against them. Then the value of the equity investments in your fund can rapidly decline or become zero.

So what would a Hedge fund manager or any other holder of the bonds want to do? Sell them. The problem is that the market now perceives the risk to be a lot higher and so requires a higher return. That means they have to buy the bonds at a lower price. Consequently, the current holder of the bonds will have to write them off at a loss.

While the Fed has provided liquidity to the holders of these investments, allowing them to hold onto them longer rather than fire selling them, this does not affect the value of the actual investment in the long run.

So until the market establishes a new value for all these mortgage backed investments, we will not know the extent of losses that various players will incur. Only know this, there will be a steady stream of loss announcements coming out of the financial sector. We have not even begun to see these.

So how do you invest? Good question. The value of stocks have fallen appreciably. So it may be time to buy for the long term. On the other hand, the market might react negatively to these earnings announcements and stock values may suffer. The overall economy is strong. The folks losing money are the ones that should lose money. They provided funds to a mortgage market without adequate risk protection. Their losses will be someone else's gain.

My suggestion is that you expect more negative reactions in the stock market for certain firms. This will create some stock price volatility. Yet, in the long run, the economy will produce positive returns for most firms including financial firms. Virtually all firms have been punished in the declining market, yet some will not be that adversely affected. Pick your investments. Know if you can stay in for the long run or not. Evaluate the balance sheets of the companies you have invested in to see what their potential loss exposure is, and reallocate or not based on your findings.

Neither over nor under estimate what the Fed can do. If it can lower all interest rates, the value of bonds will increase and losses will be minimized. But the Fed can only control short term interest rates and the policies it pursues can have additional affects on the value of the dollar and future inflation, which can turn long term interest rates the opposite direction, reducing the value of long term bonds.

Author has 23 years on commercial banking and has served as president of a bank, loan approver for large commercial loans, and regional manager for commercial banking for a major US bank.

Loosing Money In Forex With Your System? Don't Let It Happen To You!

Trading the forex market is almost impossible for most people, but why is this? It is a well know fact that 95% of traders fail. I know I could increase your chances of success dramatically by changing two simple things in your trading. Would you like to know what they are? Then read on.

1. Risk Reward Almost all traders want profits, in fact they want it so bad they are willing to risk far more than they gain to get it. Do you do this? It is a very serious problem that will drastically reduce your chances of success in the long run.

Lets look at some examples.

If we risk 60 pips to get 20 pips then we must have 75% winning trades just to break even!

If we risk 60 pips to get 60 pips then we must have 50% winning trades just to break even!

If we risk 30 pips to get 60 pips then we must have 33% winning trades just to break even!

If we risk 20 pips to get 60 pips then we must have 25% winning trades just to break even!

Do you see how you are setting the odds against you? You should always try to shoot for at least twice what you risk on each trade if not three times. This puts your chances of success far higher in the long run.

2. Trade With The Trend

I'm sure you have herd this many times before abut how many of you actually do this? Trading with the trend will not only set the odds of the trade being a success in your favor it will also get you out of trouble if you get into the trade at the wrong time.

Try to keep an eye on the trend of the larger time frame while you trade only take trades in that direction on the lower time frames.

Conclusion Using these two simple tips you have already placed yourself far ahead of the 95% that fail in this business. Remember to always keep in mind the longer term goals and avoid thinking about the day to day results.

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